Model analysis - 12-16.04.2007 - basing upon GFS 12z-run

Despite the fact, the weather remains rather unamusing, I'd like to consider some GFS 12z maps to reveal the subtle changes as time progresses (the maps won't decay).

GFS 12z analysis, valid for Thursday, 12.4.2007, 12 UTC, shows an elongated ridge stretching from Central Mediterrean to the North Sea. It is flanked by a cut-off-process to the west affecting Western Europe and portions of Northwestern Africa with partly severe thunderstorms - and a cut-off low in the Eastern Mediterranean. The British Isles are located in a region with weak pressure gradients but relatively high pressure. A weak disturbation - a hardly-defined trough axis belonging to the Iberian low-pressure system moved northward and affected parts of the British Isles with temporary denser clouds. Otherwise, frontal zone is situated far to the north with several incorporated shortwave troughs traveling to the northeast and then across Northern Scandinavia southeastward. While the latter area experiences a rather cool weather period, most parts of central Europe amidst the ridge see unseasonable high temperatures in exceed of 20°C, today in Innsbruck even 26°C with aid of foehn winds.

t+24h:

The Iberian Peninsula low-pressure system slightly weakens, but stays dominantly for wide parts of Western Europe and the Western Mediterranean. The upper-level ridge develops a separated core over Northern Germany with increasing geopotential heights due to the southerly air mass advection ahead of the Iberian Peninsula trough. Weak disturbances will cross the British Isles from the south, but precipitation is very unlikely to occur.

Update:

Due to the latest estofex outlook, available here, I will adjust my prediction as follows: Weak lowlevel lapse rates and steepening midlevel lapse rates suggest that weak instability may built up during the day, additonally increasing low- and midlevel moisture advection promotes humid convective boundary layers. The aforementioned weak upper disturbances may be sufficient for the generation of some thunderstorms. However, the lack of vertical wind shear will suppress the potential of severe thunderstroms.

t+48h:

Two different cut-off processes have been completed now - the upper-level ridge continous its strengthening over Central Europe, while the former Iberian low-system moves farther to the east and affects most of western and central Mediterranean as well as Southwestern France with partly strong convective precipitation. This configuration is said to be a classic high-over-low setup and used to be very stable in a synoptic scale. A small-scale and rather weak upper-level low over Wales may give some headache in regard to its real effects then. From a current point of view it causes alot of cloudiness, but no precipitation-bearing one. However, situation may still change in the next run and other models.

Saturday evening, the upperlow is forecast to produce little convective precipitation over the Western portions of UK.

t+72h:

The omega high pressure area is completely surrounded by several upper-level troughs. The aforementioned weak upper-level low weakened, but is still visible as a poor area of slightly lower geopotential heights over the English Channel. Respective curvature in the geopotential height isolines is situated over Wales, still in association with little precipitation signals within the small trough axis.

Crucial development for the changing flow pattern starts over the Northern Atlantics where a large-scale trough forms in the Denmark Strait and subsequently, a shortwave upper-level ridge cut off the frontal zone to the west.

t+96h:

The cold front of the low associated with the Denmark Strait upper-level trough is forecast to slowly cross the British Isles on Monday. Indeed, precipitation signals are rather poor due to the prevailing high geopotential heights above the surface cold front. Currently, it is not clear how actively the cold front passage will be and when the weather pattern will start to change sustainable.

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© Felix Welzenbach, 12.04.2007, 18.45 UTC